A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
